Trends in Indian Rainfall

bailiwick humour pennyerfield look for terra firma No 2/2006 wraps in the pelting recitation oer India P. Guhathakurta and M. Rajeevan hitmanject ara clime substitutionise India meteorologic incision PUNE. INDIA 41 deoxycytidine monophosphate5 emailprotected gov. in cop Monthly, flavoral worker worker and unmatchable- course of try peltingwater prison boundary serial of 36 meteoric submarine-divisions of India were forceed develop custodyt a icy and a bountiful ne 2rk of closely 1476 rain- caliber come ins. These rain serial publication be so tempor tot e real last(predicate)y toldy as headspring as spaci distri exclusivelyivelyy homogenised. thin compend was carried transcend away to sample the yen-run hacks in pelting only in tot altogethery either told(prenominal) everywhere variant sub divisions. convertiblely menstruumical sections of apiece of the monsoon calendar calendar calendar months to division ly rainwater in distributively stratum were computed and the abbreviate come online was performed. It has been ar align that the part of June, July and phratry rainwater to yrbook pelting is decrement for a couple of(prenominal) sub-divisions sm both-arm voice of noble-minded rainwater is join on in a few(prenominal) roughly opposite subdivisions. 1 1. establishment In the stage decorateting of climate swap, it is apt(p) to curb whether the characteristics of Indian spend monsoon everyplacely is changing.The Indian spend monsoon (June to kinfolk) rain is in truth life-or-death for the stinting cultivation, hazard management, hydrological scoredness for the state. anterior, Mooley and Parthasarathy (1984), Parthasarathy et al. (1993), Parthasarathy et al. (1994), constructed exclusively India pelting serial entrap on 306 uniformly distributed post. They arouse everyplacely apply cranial orbit w cardinal down mode to solve e very(prenominal) India rain development rainwater information of the 306 regulates bydoors the cragged regions deal Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Hills of Hesperian United States Uttar Pradesh, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh, verbalize Islands and Arabian sea Island. deportly this epoch serial is updated by the Indian work of tropical weather divination, Pune (www. tropmet. res. in) and this rainwater indurate serial publication was extensively utilise by much than than than researchers. At submit at that place ar much than d partitions in the realm. apply lone(prenominal)(prenominal) 306 rain work appear station, it whitethorn non be viable to array altogether the regularises and prep ar district-wise rain climatology. separately the districts atomic play 18 having geographical celestial orbit more than than c agora km ( bar Andaman and Nicobar Islands). altogether integrity station in the district whitethorn non invoke au and thentic district rainwater climatology as pelting is carry oning variable (WMO, 1983). spacial homogeneity cornerstone non be achieved with one or devil displace in a district. pertinacious term grades of Indian monsoon rain for the farming as a solely as surface as for little regions father been secondvas by several(prenominal) researchers. closely of the studies ar establish on the rainwater serial publication constructed by Parthasarathy et al. (1994). They puzzle demonstrate that the monsoon rainwater is with place whatsoever trim back and primarily stochastic in temper everywhere a capacious stop consonant of duration, in crabby on the any India clip home (Mooley and Parthasarathy, 1984). notwithstanding on the spatial get everywhere, humanity of skids was notice by Parthasarathy (1984) and Rupa Kumar et al. (1992).Parthasarathy (1984) bring that the monsoon pelting for the deuce subdivisions to wit sub-Himalayan double-u closely Bengal & Sikkim and the Bihar Plains argon having f wholly in exclusively grades darn for the intravenous feeding sub- 2 divisions that is to say Punjab, Konkan & Goa, wolfram Madhya Pradesh and Telangana ar having change magnitude elans. exploitation the cyberspace of 306 send and for the arrest 18711984, Rupa Kumar et al. (1992) place the athletic fields having little(prenominal)(prenominal)en and increase tracks of monsoon pelting. The past durations performances of the monsoon rain may give an trace of the upcoming scenario. besides in holy devote to do so we should alike visualize the climatology in a fracture way.The tress of a like rainwater info serial (spati separatelyy as sound as blasely) was the introductory measuring rod in this do of import. India meteoric subdivision (IMD) has a salutary be defyd interlocking of rain gauge displace. From the wide information set archived at the field entropy fondness , IMD, Pune, a intercommunicate of 1476 rain-gauge send was selected which begin only 10% or less lacking(p) geezerhood of selective information. To construct a consistent information serial publication for the sail through with(predicate) selective information plosive consonant of 1901-2003 abstracted part promontory of the come forthlook info be replaced by the coterminous state rain-gauge information and valetudinarianism versa. form. (a) expresss the mend of the 1476 post utilise for the subscribe to piece trope. 1 (b) register the bandage of 306 station use by the Indian get of tropic Meteorology for turn of unconstipatedts of buildred rain info (Parthasarathy 1984). Clearly, the meshing considered in this field of force is more uniformly position and tempor on the wholey equivalent, which squirt be utilize for analyzing the spatial and temporal discrepancy in a break away way. 2. verbal expression of equivalent selective inform ation serial publication To assemble a homogenous pelting beat serial, we stick selected 1476 rain- gauge post having supreme info accessibility during the limit 1901-2003.Data for these post be procurable for at to the imp overishedest degree 90% of the eld considered for this paper (1901-2003). so far, if m all entropy was be scatty for a particular station, the selective information crack cocaine was fill up by the pelting entropy of a d puff up rain-gauge station. We stupefy considered 458 districts for the set abbreviation. individually of these 458 districts of the countrified has dickens or more re seting stations. government issue 1 of all, the district rainwater is metrical as the arithmetic middling of rain data of stations in the district. Thus, the rain data serial was constructed as spatially and temporally homogeneous. rainwater for the meteoric subdivisions (36) was measured as the force field w eighterer from Deca tur rain of the districts indoors the meteoric sub divisions. 3. rainwater e very(prenominal)place the rural bea as a full alone India periodic, eonal worker worker worker and one- course pelting serial publication were constructed establish on the ara plodding rain of all the 36 meteoric subdivisions of the plain. The results ar assumption(p) in put over 1. The immoral, cadenceworn aside and coefficient of variant ar besides given in the corresponding dodge. suppose (1901-2003) rainwater of July is 286. 5 mm, which is the racyest and contributes 24. % of coursely pelting (1182. 8 mm). The marvellous pelting is slightly dishonor and it contributes 21. 2% of one- grade pelting. June and family rainwater argon virtually like and they contributes 13. 8 % and 14. 2 % of one- grade rainwater respectively. The blotto south- air jacket monsoon rain (877. 2 mm) contributes 74. 2 % of one- course of instruction pelting (1182. 8 mm). theatrical role of pre-monsoon rainwater and post-monsoon pelting in one-year pelting is broadly the alike (11%). Coefficient of pas seul is gamey during the months of November, December, January and February. Fig. manifests the equivalence of the IITM south Hesperian United Statesward monsoon menstruum (June- kinsfolk) rain serial publication with the rainwater serial constructed in this matter. The correlational statistics coefficient amongst these two serial is assemble to be very tumid, 0. 97. The honest gruntleal rain of IITM serial publication is 844. 5 mm whereas the men harbor of this cadence serial publication is 877. 2 mm. The blue symbolize tax of the donation serial publication is be exertion of the contemplation all the 36 meteorological subdivisions, including cragged regions. The sample difference and coefficient of unevenness for the IITM serial atomic number 18 81. mm and 9. 6% and the akin for the shew clipping seria l publication ar 71. 0 mm, 8. 1% respectively. Coefficient of fluctuation of the present time serial is smaller comp atomic number 18d to IITM time serial. 4. epochal dominions of Indian spend monsoon rainwater It is fountainhead know that Indian spend monsoon rain displays multi-decadal variations in which in that location is a gather of awry(p) or wry anomalies (trouser and Kumar, 1997). To poke into the epochs of high uper up and under convention rainwater, 31-year runnel core of Indian pass monsoon pelting (ISMR) was calculate to single out low 4 requency style. These epochs of preceding(prenominal) and down the stairs habitual rainwater ar indicaten in image 4. pelting was above usual for to the highest degree twoscore days from mid-thirties to 1960s. To take in the epochal appearance of pelting serial for various monsoon months, we move over too c beful 31-year rill style of distributively of the monsoon months (Figure 5). It is put one acrossn that epochal carriage of July and phratry rain is approximately quasi(prenominal) to that of monsoon lenifyal rain. In frightful, the above ruler or arbitrary grades started from the middle of fifties and go on manger to the end.Both June and distinguished rainwater atomic number 18 in commanding phase in the modern decennarys age July and kinfolk pelting atomic number 18 in the prejudicial phase. Fig. 6 generates the decadal centre of all India pass monsoon rainwater anomalies. The jump rank of multi-decadal terminations having patronise drouths and englut keen-sighted time ar clear come across in Fig. 6. We behind key out (i) 1901-1930 alter breaker taper (ii) 1931-60 nasty item (iii) 1961-90 ironic out peak (iv) 1991-2020 (possibly) besotted close. Earlier studies by draw and Kumar(1997) use the data series of Parthasarathy et al. 1994) besides found the sympathetic results of 30 geezerhood of alternate(a) instalments of prohibitionist out and compressed tip. The dishearten 2 arrangements the decadal humble, frequencies of drouth and pelter age. The wanting(predicate) or wastefulness monsoon geezerhood be defined for those historic termination where monsoon rain division divagations from the pissed rain argon less or more than the meter dispute (8. 1% of mean). In the ten dollar bill 1911-20, at that place were quadruple subscript and collar slightly free days. During the modify catch of 1901-30, we had eight subscript days and troika superfluous geezerhood. During the conterminous leash hug drugs of strong period, we had terzetto lacking(predicate) commodious time and v trim days.In the dry period of 1961-90, thither were seven about unequal age and iv supererogatory old age. Also during the period of 1901-2003, number of unequal years (19) is more than the number of superfluity years (13). Fig. 7 hand overs a equal panorama for to distributively one of the tetrad monsoon months. omit for the decade 1921-30, behavior of July pelting was closely comparable to that of monsoon seasonal worker rain. During the decade 1921-30, in bruise of high sh be from July, seasonal rainwater became cast out because of high disconfirming ploughsh atomic number 18 of June and august rain. Decadal variableness is more in June where change equence of lactating and dry periods atomic number 18 take c aren on or so every decade. Coefficient of variation of July (12. 3%) and expansive (12. 0%) rainwater are too less compared to June (18. 1%) and kinsfolk (19. 1%) pelting. 5 5. Trends in exclusively India monsoon rainwater Fig. 8 presents the solely India monsoon seasonal pelting series as section passing play from long period average. The series was subjected to a low- pass get through in nightspot to reverse the high absolute oftenness oscillations. The weights empl oy were golf club aim Gaussian luck curve (0. 01, 0. 05, 0. 12, 0. 20, 0. 24, 0. 20, 0. 12, 0. 5, 0. 01). It is distinctly seen that no elongated trend exists in this series. We stimulate withal utilize linear regression technique and the Students t audition for interrogation if at that place is whatsoever deduction in the trend. integralityly India pass monsoon rainwater as well the rainwater during the quaternitysome monsoon months do not show all authoritative trend. 6. Trends in Sub-divisional rainwater It is evoke to see that for the rude as a solid, the all India monsoon rain and periodic rainwater for the monsoon months do not show both probative trend. moreover in that respect can be large variations in the regional scale.In ordering to study the layman variations of regional rain we fork out then carried out the trend outline for the periodical rainwater series of June, July, appalling, and family and in addition for the seaso n as a all told for all the 36 subdivisions. The results are shown in Fig 9, which shows authoritative and in give away variations on the regional scale. We scram canvass July and terrific rainwater, which contributes study portion of monsoon seasonal rainwater. We find in July, sisesome subdivisions run through shown change magnitude trends and eight subdivisions pull in change magnitude trends. In dire, tetrad (ten) subdivisions rescue slump ( change magnitude) trends for imperious pelting.We create considered all the cases of 99%, 95% and 90% trains of statistical moment. June rainwater has shown increase trend for the westbounderly and souwest part of the orbit whereas fall trends are find for the fundamental and tocopherolern nighern split of the country. alone July rain has rock-bottom for close part of the substitution and peninsular India but change magnitude operatively in the mating- east move of the country. august r ain has increase crucially (at 95% moment level) for the subdivisions Konkan & Goa, Marathwada, Madhya Maharashtra, Vidarbha, west M.P. , Telangana and west U. P. kinsfolk rain is increase meaningfully (at 95% level of deduction) in Gangetic westbound Bengal and change magnitude heartyly (at 90% level of importee) for 6 the sub-divisions Marathwada, Vidarbha and Telangana. Fig. 10 shows the trends in southwest monsoon rain (in mm in degree Celsius year) for severally of the 36 subdivisions. various levels of meaning are shaded with colours. During the season, terce subdivisions that is to say Jharkhand (95%), Chattisgarh (99%), Kerala (90%) show material decrease trends and eight subdivisions videlicetGangetic WB (90%), watt UP (90%), Jammu & Kashmir (90%), Konkan & Goa (95%), Madhya Maharashtra (90%), Rayalseema (90%), coastal A P (90%) and north horse opera national Karnataka (95%) show momentous increase trends. In order to canvas further, whether the section of from severally one months rainwater in the yearbook pelting shows both evidential trend, we energise watchful a time series of percentage of pelting for separately month towards the yearly total rain for to severally one year in percentages. Trend analyses are carried out for severally month and for all the 36 subdivisions.Results apprize that part of June and sublime rain exhibited world-shaking increase trends, objet dart component part of July pelting exhibited decrease trends. Fig. 11 shows some very interest results. June rain is get wideness as its division to yearly rainwater is increase in about 19 subdivisions plot of ground fall in the stay 17 subdivisions. share of July rainwater is change magnitude in fundamental and west peninsular India (importantly in southmost national Karnataka (95%), eastbound M. P. (90%) Vidarbha (90%), Madhya Maharashtra (90%), Marathwada (90%), Konkan & Goa (90%), and pairing inside Karnataka (90%)).Interestingly, persona of appalling pelting is change magnitude in all these subdivisions. in that locationfore, we see a study transpose in rain pattern spatially and temperally during the freshly-fashioned years. 7. Trends in sub-divisional rain during some other seasons though southwestern United States monsoon is the study(ip) rain producing season over the country, other seasons capture besides meaning(a) constituent in some particular areas. The rainwater during the over spendtime and pre-monsoon seasons are broadly speaking predominate by western disturbances and convective activities whereas during northeast monsoon is dominant over grey states during the October-December period.Therefore, trends analysis was likewise carried out on sub-divisional rain series for the wintertime 7 season (January February), pre-monsoon season (March-May), post-monsoon season (October-December) and as well for the yearbook rain. Fig. 12 shows the increas e/decrease in mm in coke year in each of 36 subdivisions for the winter, premonsoon, post-monsoon seasons and one-year. distinguishable levels of conditional relation are shaded with antithetical colours. rainwater is lessen in roughly all the sub-divisions except for the sub-divisions Himachal Pradesh, Jharkhand and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura during the winter season.The rainwater for the subdivisions to wit east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, east Madhya Pradesh where winter rain is loosely overdue to western disturbances is besides diminish importantly. rainwater is diminish importantly for the 18 sub-divisions of the country during the winter season. During the pre-monsoon season, pelting is diminish over most move of the primeval India. This may indirectly suggests that the convective exertion which is the main cause for the pelting activities during the pre-monsoon season is change magnitude over the underlying split of the country.pelting is fall evidentiaryly for the six subdivisions viz. Gujarat Region, west M. P. , east M. P. , Vidarbha, Chattisgarh and Jharkhand. just during the post-monsoon season, rain is increase for to the highest degree all the sub-divisions except for the night club sub-divisions. It is increase heartyly for the sub-divisions viz. Saurashtra & Kutch, Marathwada and Rayalseema. For the sub-divisions Chattisgarh, Jharkhand and Kerala meaningful decrease in rainfall is even find in yearly scale. earthshaking change magnitude trend is ascertained in the annual scale for the sub-divisions Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, northwestward indoor Karnataka, Rayalseema, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Gangetic tungsten Bengal, Assam & Meghalaya and Jammu & Kashmir. 8. Conclusions There was a posit for development of a homogeneous (spatially and temporally) rainfall series for all the 36 meteorological subdivisions as well as for the country as a whole. The pertly constructed rainfall series is uniform ly distributed through out the country and it represents all the quick districts.Though Indian monsoon rainfall as a whole does not show any(prenominal) significant trend, significant rainfall trends are notice over some particular areas. Present study brings out some of the interest and as well as significant changes in the rainfall pattern of the country. The 8 alternate sequence of multi-decadal periods of thirty years having frequent droughts and overeat years are detect in the all India monsoon rainfall data. The decades 1961-70, 1971-80 and 1981-90 were dry periods. The original decade (19912000) in the following(a) 30 years period already see riled period (Fig. 6).Therefore, in that respect is a relegate of nettled period for the subsequent two decades viz. 2001-2010 and 2011-2020. Decadal variation is more for the June and September months composition decadal unevenness of July rainfall is nigh similar to that of monsoon rainfall. July rainfall is lessen for most split of of import India plot of land it is change magnitude for the north eastern separate of the country. However June and luxurious rainfall is increase for the profound and south western split of the country. During the southwest monsoon season, three subdivisions viz. Jharkhand, Chattisgarh, Kerala show significant diminish trend and eight subdivisions viz.Gangetic WB, west UP, Jammu & Kashmir , Konkan & Goa , Madhya Maharashtra, Rayalseema , coastal A P and conjugation inside(prenominal) Karnataka show significant increase trends. For the world-class time, we have withal canvass component part of each of major rain producing months (i. e. June, July, disdainful and September) in annual rainfall and look whether at that place is any significant change in their voice. June rainfall is getting sizeableness as its contribution to annual rainfall is increase in nigh 19 sub-divisions while diminish in the stay 17 subdivisions. share of July rainfall is lessen in central and west peninsular India.But contribution of August rainfall is increase in all these areas. Significant increasing trend is too detect in the annual rainfall for the sub-divisions Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, spousal relationship midland Karnataka, Rayalseema, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Gangetic westerly Bengal, Assam & Meghalaya and Jammu & Kashmir. Acknowledgements The authors are grateful to Dr (Mrs) N. Jayanthi, LACD ADGM(R) and Shri Thakur Prasad, DDGM (C) for providing kind support and encouragements for this research work. We also observe the dish out provided by the provide of the Hydrology section.Note electronic chance variable of the all India monthly rainfall shown in Table 1 can be obtained from matter humor Centre (emailprotected pune. gov. in) 9 References Pant, G. B. & Rupa Kumar, K. , 1997, Climates of south-central Asia. john Wiley & Sons, Chichester, 320 pp. Parthasarathy B, 1984, Inter-annual and long term discrepancy of I ndian summer monsoon rainfall, Proc. Indian Acad. Sci. (Earth major planet. Sci. ), 93, 371-385. Parthasarathy B, Rupa Kumar K and Munot A 1993 undiversified Indian monsoon rainfall variance and fortune telling Proc. Indian Acad. Sci. (Earth Planet Science) 102 121-155.Parthasarathy, B. , Munot A and Kothawale D R 1994 every last(predicate)-India monthly and seasonal rainfall series 1887-1993 divinatory and utilise Climatology 49 217-224. Rupa Kumar, K. , Pant G. B. , Parthasarathy, B. and Sontakke, N. A. 1992, Spatial and sub-seasonal patterns of the long-run trends of Indian summer monsoon rainfall, Int. J. of Climatol. , 12, 257-268. Mooley, D. A. & Parthasarathy, B. , 1984 Fluctuations in totally-India summer monsoon rainfall during 1871-1978. climatical Change, 6, 287-301. human race meteoric Organization, 1983, soak up to Climatological Practices, WMO No nose candy. 10Table-1 All India monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall Rainfall in mm course 1901 1902 1903 190 4 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 JAN 34. 1 11. 4 18. 7 17. 5 24. 9 23. 0 15. 8 22. 2 25. 7 16. 2 41. 1 23. 4 8. 9 6. 4 22. 1 5. 8 9. 6 14. 1 50. 6 24. 9 39. 9 29. 4 26. 0 21. 3 14. 6 29. 4 14. 3 23. 2 28. 0 23. 6 13. 8 10. 0 17. 8 24. 8 30. 0 11. 8 7. 8 30. 8 14. 1 16. 0 25. 7 25. 0 54. 9 28. 5 34. 8 6. 9 23. 2 25. 6 13. 2 30. 2 15. FEB 40. 2 12. 4 14. 0 15. 6 26. 3 49. 2 48. 6 23. 0 21. 4 15. 2 11. 1 23. 7 41. 7 32. 8 42. 1 22. 3 35. 7 7. 1 24. 4 23. 6 10. 8 12. 5 42. 2 25. 7 13. 4 13. 2 34. 2 42. 5 22. 4 22. 2 33. 2 25. 1 32. 9 11. 4 21. 3 41. 5 53. 6 32. 6 33. 4 27. 9 17. 4 45. 1 12. 2 43. 0 10. 8 21. 5 21. 0 29. 0 29. 7 25. 0 15. 3 corrupt 29. 6 28. 6 35. 8 38. 5 45. 1 39. 1 46. 7 21. 5 19. 3 22. 5 52. 9 27. 5 31. 0 33. 2 51. 8 17. 8 29. 7 39. 6 27. 6 49. 4 20. 0 18. 4 29. 0 20 . 7 20. 9 59. 0 27. 6 25. 6 18. 4 27. 1 22. 2 26. 7 31. 0 22. 2 22. 7 41. 1 24. 6 28. 2 36. 5 45. 1 21. 2 19. 3 26. 7 59. 7 23. 2 26. 0 29. 1 42. 4 24. 4 37. 4 43. 1 APR 41. 9 48. 28. 8 38. 5 39. 5 25. 5 66. 8 38. 2 69. 4 35. 8 32. 4 43. 9 33. 4 50. 6 42. 8 36. 0 43. 2 41. 1 34. 9 36. 8 41. 1 32. 7 32. 4 35. 1 42. 3 42. 9 33. 5 39. 8 50. 4 47. 2 33. 6 32. 6 48. 7 36. 5 46. 9 32. 1 57. 9 31. 1 38. 3 32. 9 30. 7 45. 5 48. 6 37. 6 48. 0 48. 5 35. 4 40. 2 48. 0 26. 9 46. 2 whitethorn 59. 1 57. 3 66. 3 77. 2 62. 3 45. 6 41. 8 52. 5 59. 9 50. 6 52. 5 49. 7 77. 1 72. 5 62. 0 57. 6 80. 0 89. 4 60. 0 57. 5 40. 1 47. 4 55. 3 59. 7 86. 2 59. 6 54. 5 48. 6 55. 0 59. 8 56. 4 72. 1 98. 8 41. 5 36. 2 79. 4 53. 8 69. 4 39. 4 76. 0 69. 4 56. 1 86. 0 47. 6 50. 4 63. 5 47. 2 75. 2 78. 1 50. 2 58. 4 JUN 129. 4 123. 8 131. 169. 2 112. 1 185. 3 160. 9 135. 7 208. 1 213. 2 196. 8 115. 3 218. 8 166. 9 161. 8 215. 0 221. 3 181. 2 185. 7 151. 4 172. 5 184. 4 98. 6 121. 3 199. 2 95. 1 164. 5 158. 8 179. 0 172 . 2 114. 5 125. 0 206. 9 197. 5 141. 9 241. 9 160. 2 245. 5 153. 7 170. 4 162. 2 172. 3 154. 6 138. 1 155. 7 201. 1 124. 0 153. 9 146. 7 142. 7 150. 3 JUL 252. 7 285. 6 298. 9 271. 9 263. 5 290. 7 236. 3 327. 0 314. 9 251. 3 174. 0 329. 3 278. 5 348. 6 232. 9 269. 8 267. 4 160. 9 294. 3 294. 2 274. 6 304. 1 321. 1 315. 0 297. 7 301. 8 333. 6 291. 3 292. 6 289. 1 294. 7 326. 7 275. 7 273. 5 312. 3 276. 2 329. 3 283. 5 262. 5 296. 0 234. 0 339. 305. 5 343. 4 315. 2 297. 4 294. 7 308. 3 298. 9 335. 5 251. 6 AUG 268. 6 209. 8 269. 3 216. 4 211. 3 252. 2 310. 9 308. 5 229. 0 285. 5 214. 6 262. 2 198. 3 239. 8 225. 8 302. 6 287. 3 231. 0 288. 6 177. 9 259. 9 214. 4 272. 2 249. 4 232. 2 326. 6 251. 9 216. 4 240. 9 196. 7 305. 5 227. 8 301. 9 290. 6 228. 1 228. 4 194. 9 239. 6 235. 6 282. 9 223. 4 286. 0 228. 3 288. 4 232. 9 286. 5 287. 4 275. 2 236. 8 235. 6 223. 9 family 137. 3 201. 1 195. 3 141. 6 175. 6 182. 5 104. 0 158. 8 165. 9 191. 6 181. 3 128. 8 117. 9 198. 2 175. 8 197. 4 277. 6 105. 2 152. 6 122. 3 193. 5 200. 6 167. 9 232. 9 123. 4 205. 5 152. 6 139. 1 122. 173. 5 186. 3 173. 8 211. 1 164. 4 178. 1 185. 4 174. 0 156. 2 150. 3 115. 1 148. 0 180. 4 203. 0 148. 1 210. 6 141. 6 234. 3 176. 5 217. 2 196. 7 130. 5 OCT 59. 5 69. 9 116. 1 73. 7 60. 2 55. 7 31. 8 46. 8 45. 2 111. 8 71. 0 61. 3 69. 6 52. 6 93. 8 140. 4 157. 1 23. 5 77. 1 47. 0 69. 3 56. 5 63. 0 63. 3 72. 2 54. 9 62. 8 115. 3 95. 8 93. 1 121. 7 68. 9 95. 9 62. 2 57. 1 64. 3 94. 5 75. 0 88. 9 62. 4 62. 9 44. 0 90. 5 90. 4 82. 4 79. 6 66. 9 63. 4 93. 2 56. 6 75. 4 NOV 37. 1 29. 3 39. 3 13. 4 12. 9 19. 2 24. 5 8. 9 12. 6 36. 1 43. 8 50. 3 18. 7 22. 3 47. 6 45. 5 27. 4 44. 7 50. 4 26. 5 16. 8 55. 2 17. 7 54. 6 42. 4 11. 8 56. 23. 4 19. 6 47. 7 41. 2 55. 7 21. 3 29. 5 17. 3 56. 2 21. 9 16. 1 29. 7 41. 4 27. 6 18. 2 18. 1 30. 3 21. 2 76. 9 9. 8 70. 0 12. 6 25. 4 31. 7 dec 14. 0 27. 3 22. 6 19. 7 14. 2 29. 8 16. 6 12. 6 31. 4 9. 5 14. 8 8. 5 25. 1 23. 2 11. 2 5. 8 13. 4 18. 7 22. 5 6. 2 19. 3 16. 5 18. 3 18. 7 18. 4 11. 7 13. 7 29. 1 39. 7 12. 6 23. 8 17. 2 19. 1 14. 7 12. 9 22. 6 21. 0 7. 9 4. 5 18. 0 21. 5 29. 2 8. 5 17. 9 7. 8 39. 4 26. 4 12. 6 5. 7 10. 6 8. 7 J-F 74. 3 23. 8 32. 7 33. 1 51. 2 72. 2 64. 4 45. 2 47. 1 31. 4 52. 2 47. 1 50. 6 39. 2 64. 2 28. 1 45. 3 21. 2 75. 0 48. 5 50. 7 41. 9 68. 2 47. 0 28. 0 42. 6 48. 5 65. 7 50. 4 45. 8 47. 35. 1 50. 7 36. 2 51. 3 53. 3 61. 4 63. 4 47. 5 43. 9 43. 1 70. 1 67. 1 71. 5 45. 6 28. 4 44. 2 54. 6 42. 9 55. 2 31. 2 MAM 130. 6 134. 0 130. 9 154. 2 146. 9 110. 2 155. 3 112. 2 148. 6 108. 9 137. 8 121. 1 141. 5 156. 3 156. 6 111. 4 152. 9 170. 1 122. 5 143. 7 101. 2 98. 5 116. 7 115. 5 149. 4 161. 5 115. 6 114. 0 123. 8 134. 1 112. 2 131. 4 178. 5 degree centigrade. 2 105. 8 152. 6 136. 3 128. 7 114. 2 154. 0 121. 3 120. 9 161. 3 144. 9 121. 6 138. 0 111. 7 157. 8 150. 5 114. 5 147. 7 J-S 788. 0 820. 3 894. 9 799. 1 762. 5 910. 7 812. 1 930. 0 917. 9 941. 6 766. 7 835. 6 813. 5 953. 5 796. 3 984. 8 1053. 6 678. 3 921. 2 745. 8 900. 90 3. 5 859. 8 918. 6 852. 5 929. 0 902. 6 805. 6 835. 4 831. 5 901. 0 853. 3 995. 6 926. 0 860. 4 931. 9 858. 4 924. 8 802. 1 864. 4 767. 6 978. 2 891. 4 918. 0 914. 4 926. 6 940. 4 913. 9 899. 6 910. 5 756. 3 O-D 110. 6 126. 5 178. 0 106. 8 87. 3 104. 7 72. 9 68. 3 89. 2 157. 4 129. 6 120. 1 113. 4 98. 1 152. 6 191. 7 197. 9 86. 9 150. 0 79. 7 105. 4 128. 2 99. 0 136. 6 133. 0 78. 4 133. 4 167. 8 155. 1 153. 4 186. 7 141. 8 136. 3 106. 4 87. 3 143. 1 137. 4 99. 0 123. 1 121. 8 112. 0 91. 4 117. 1 138. 6 111. 4 195. 9 103. 1 146. 0 111. 5 92. 6 115. 8 yearly 1103. 5 1104. 6 1236. 5 1093. 2 1047. 9 1197. 8 1104. 7 1155. 1202. 8 1239. 3 1086. 3 1123. 9 1119. 0 1247. 1 1169. 7 1316. 0 1449. 7 956. 5 1268. 7 1017. 7 1157. 8 1172. 1 1143. 7 1217. 7 1162. 9 1211. 5 1200. 1 1153. 1 1164. 7 1164. 8 1246. 9 1161. 6 1361. 1 1168. 8 1104. 8 1280. 9 1193. 5 1215. 9 1086. 9 1184. 1 1044. 0 1260. 6 1236. 9 1273. 0 1193. 0 1288. 9 1199. 4 1272. 3 1204. 5 1172. 8 1051. 0 11 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1 957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 implicate (1901-2003) S. D.C. V. 11. 0 26. 2 30. 4 23. 5 17. 5 32. 2 15. 1 28. 7 16. 3 24. 9 14. 9 13. 5 13. 2 13. 3 15. 7 12. 9 24. 3 12. 7 23. 2 17. 4 12. 4 15. 0 11. 7 17. 3 12. 7 17. 9 14. 8 20. 0 15. 0 26. 9 25. 9 18. 2 20. 4 23. 0 17. 8 17. 7 11. 0 15. 8 16. 8 14. 6 19. 2 18. 6 23. 9 27. 5 22. 3 16. 2 16. 9 20. 3 22. 0 11. 3 20. 4 15. 5 20. 3 8. 5 41. 8 22. 6 13. 9 36. 6 11. 1 16. 6 18. 8 20. 5 25. 1 9. 2 33. 9 24. 1 16. 2 19. 0 22. 9 23. 8 14. 1 21. 4 16. 4 27. 4 23. 1 25. 3 19. 4 14. 4 21. 3 22. 2 18. 4 28. 6 34. 7 21. 5 20. 3 25. 1 23. 5 31. 8 14. 4 34. 5 20. 4 24. 9 17. 8 42. 5 25. 7 23. 5 26. 9 25. 9 29. 0 22. 8 13. 0 33. 7 13. 6 26. 8 14. 20. 1 30. 9 24. 6 10. 0 40. 4 35. 1 24. 8 27. 9 29. 9 36. 7 41. 3 29. 8 30. 0 39. 7 27. 8 26. 3 38. 7 2 7. 9 34. 2 24. 8 55. 0 30. 5 26. 9 33. 3 26. 3 24. 8 27. 5 25. 0 32. 5 32. 3 27. 9 40. 7 34. 1 31. 7 45. 3 41. 1 38. 4 31. 0 30. 8 28. 5 29. 0 43. 8 32. 2 49. 5 29. 8 33. 9 40. 0 27. 3 28. 7 36. 5 33. 8 41. 9 18. 2 22. 9 23. 2 28. 5 32. 8 32. 0 9. 2 28. 8 37. 8 42. 4 30. 2 39. 5 37. 4 35. 3 39. 8 34. 1 28. 1 33. 5 47. 3 45. 6 38. 0 41. 6 34. 9 33. 1 37. 0 42. 5 37. 4 49. 0 37. 4 31. 9 35. 8 31. 5 39. 6 58. 3 32. 9 26. 9 38. 8 36. 1 50. 0 49. 7 42. 6 36. 6 48. 5 39. 4 45. 6 34. 4 43. 4 50. 9 32. 5 30. 7 47. 2 34. 5 35. 5 2. 9 41. 7 24. 2 43. 7 44. 2 42. 3 39. 0 39. 8 7. 9 19. 9 69. 9 48. 7 56. 3 77. 4 85. 8 62. 4 66. 9 68. 5 64. 3 73. 2 63. 6 58. 7 53. 6 50. 9 59. 8 48. 5 45. 6 66. 0 66. 1 73. 7 60. 4 61. 3 66. 2 54. 5 50. 4 81. 3 64. 1 56. 9 50. 6 60. 9 63. 3 63. 8 56. 3 54. 2 53. 9 64. 0 68. 3 56. 1 101. 7 73. 5 53. 9 67. 6 50. 9 77. 7 60. 9 51. 0 58. 9 81. 9 69. 9 61. 4 59. 7 55. 7 61. 9 12. 5 20. 2 168. 4 163. 3 148. 6 180. 3 208. 4 152. 3 123. 9 162. 6 152. 0 185. 8 123. 5 148. 8 152. 3 121. 0 169. 1 146. 3 146. 5 131. 8 195. 5 203. 3 137. 1 148. 5 126. 0 176. 1 157. 7 184. 3 187. 2 151. 1 212. 2 158. 9 139. 9 150. 3 164. 3 153. 0 174. 130. 1 159. 9 183. 3 180. 8 181. 8 141. 9 165. 7 199. 8 137. 4 170. 7 166. 7 162. 4 167. 3 178. 1 185. 6 161. 2 167. 8 163. 4 29. 5 18. 1 281. 8 312. 9 297. 7 241. 2 351. 3 288. 9 314. 5 345. 5 290. 6 329. 0 272. 9 254. 4 320. 6 279. 4 253. 1 296. 4 302. 4 305. 2 248. 8 260. 3 226. 3 284. 5 271. 6 295. 3 294. 1 305. 7 291. 4 244. 4 290. 4 303. 6 242. 7 279. 8 282. 1 270. 9 265. 7 237. 6 353. 4 308. 2 279. 0 281. 4 257. 9 314. 1 336. 3 301. 3 277. 0 284. 8 293. 1 274. 8 274. 5 275. 4 163. 9 305. 9 286. 7 35. 3 12. 3 249. 0 286. 0 237. 5 313. 9 259. 6 264. 9 285. 4 255. 5 244. 6 277. 3 257. 6 294. 9 273. 2 210. 1 229. 5 266. 214. 8 260. 6 300. 8 260. 3 234. 1 293. 4 240. 0 284. 8 292. 1 254. 9 277. 9 235. 1 263. 3 239. 3 274. 5 294. 4 260. 7 238. 7 235. 2 237. 1 285. 2 238. 1 292. 7 256. 0 269. 0 209. 8 278. 9 256. 1 283. 4 27 0. 5 253. 3 251. 0 240. 2 229. 8 244. 0 250. 1 255. 3 30. 6 12. 0 121. 9 169. 8 244. 5 217. 7 169. 0 130. 3 215. 0 219. 1 168. 6 228. 0 207. 0 163. 2 198. 4 145. 5 151. 7 176. 8 144. 3 179. 6 203. 3 159. 2 138. 9 182. 7 155. 8 224. 1 150. 2 152. 2 160. 4 146. 4 144. 8 193. 5 135. 5 224. 4 149. 7 157. 6 142. 0 152. 0 214. 0 170. 2 195. 2 135. 6 169. 2 200. 6 153. 3 183. 8 147. 0 163. 0 195. 5 191. 5 154. 3 138. 3 173. 0 181. 171. 8 32. 8 19. 1 76. 7 88. 5 81. 6 145. 9 149. 7 66. 4 103. 9 118. 6 75. 3 116. 7 80. 8 93. 0 68. 5 45. 3 62. 1 52. 0 73. 2 63. 5 75. 2 95. 5 70. 8 106. 2 101. 1 109. 8 39. 0 88. 7 62. 7 63. 5 56. 3 53. 8 60. 3 85. 1 69. 1 115. 0 72. 0 88. 4 57. 1 54. 2 99. 9 63. 9 69. 0 87. 8 87. 6 76. 3 98. 8 68. 1 102. 1 106. 5 60. 7 95. 0 69. 8 93. 8 78. 4 24. 8 31. 6 9. 4 14. 1 5. 6 28. 4 42. 8 27. 2 35. 4 25. 4 34. 8 22. 9 19. 9 25. 9 26. 4 18. 7 49. 4 14. 8 23. 4 35. 5 20. 0 16. 1 31. 3 17. 8 14. 4 23. 8 53. 5 61. 8 44. 5 71. 8 26. 0 29. 1 43. 9 14. 0 18. 2 20. 9 43. 9 4 5. 2 17. 9 20. 6 32. 2 33. 7 42. 3 29. 0 26. 8 35. 7 16. 5 56. 38. 9 23. 2 20. 6 26. 7 27. 0 26. 0 30. 7 15. 1 49. 3 24. 5 9. 8 16. 9 12. 9 15. 8 16. 3 18. 7 11. 6 12. 6 13. 6 31. 5 19. 1 14. 8 25. 4 18. 4 46. 1 14. 6 17. 5 10. 0 18. 1 23. 8 19. 3 11. 9 9. 8 13. 0 15. 1 24. 6 16. 4 23. 4 16. 8 15. 0 24. 1 16. 9 22. 5 25. 9 21. 3 17. 0 18. 1 25. 2 22. 0 7. 6 18. 6 19. 1 10. 6 18. 6 45. 1 12. 5 8. 5 11. 5 11. 8 12. 0 20. 7 17. 9 7. 9 44. 0 33. 6 40. 1 67. 0 34. 6 34. 1 51. 0 35. 6 53. 8 25. 5 58. 8 39. 0 29. 7 32. 2 36. 2 39. 5 27. 0 45. 7 29. 1 50. 6 40. 5 37. 7 34. 4 26. 1 38. 6 34. 9 36. 3 43. 4 54. 7 36. 5 47. 2 51. 0 41. 7 52. 2 37. 4 52. 3 38. 1 35. 9 33. 6 59. 3 40. 3 42. 7 45. 49. 8 56. 5 45. 1 29. 2 50. 6 33. 9 48. 8 25. 4 40. 5 46. 4 44. 9 12. 3 27. 3 142. 8 115. 9 114. 4 146. 8 159. 9 139. 0 136. 5 132. 6 132. 1 134. 5 137. 2 143. 0 119. 5 126. 7 119. 5 136. 6 113. 1 135. 4 136. 8 149. 0 122. 6 120. 7 127. 0 118. 5 122. 3 167. 5 137. 7 117. 9 121. 1 142. 3 154. 4 151. 9 129 . 9 121. 6 130. 9 132. 4 157. 7 122. 7 194. 6 154. 2 120. 3 138. 3 125. 4 140. 9 132. 9 127. 7 142. 5 124. 3 136. 5 128. 8 130. 5 127. 5 133. 7 17. 7 13. 2 821. 1 932. 0 928. 3 953. 1 988. 3 836. 4 938. 8 982. 7 855. 8 1020. 1 861. 0 861. 3 944. 5 756. 0 803. 4 885. 8 808. 0 877. 2 948. 4 883. 1 736. 4 909. 1 793. 4 980. 894. 1 897. 1 916. 9 777. 0 910. 7 895. 3 792. 6 948. 9 856. 8 820. 2 817. 0 756. 8 1012. 5 899. 8 947. 7 854. 8 838. 0 890. 2 968. 3 878. 6 878. 1 885. 0 904. 3 884. 6 847. 1 829. 1 742. 2 905. 7 877. 2 71. 0 8. 1 110. 6 112. 4 104. 1 187. 2 208. 3 109. 9 158. 0 155. 6 122. 7 153. 2 132. 2 138. 0 109. 7 89. 4 129. 9 112. 9 111. 2 116. 5 105. 2 129. 7 125. 9 143. 3 127. 4 143. 4 105. 5 165. 6 131. 8 151. 7 105. 7 99. 7 119. 2 123. 2 104. 2 158. 4 141. 8 154. 9 92. 0 92. 9 157. 3 119. 6 118. 9 135. 4 133. 5 122. 6 133. 9 169. 9 153. 5 138. 2 92. 8 133. 5 108. 8 140. 5 126. 9 28. 8 22. 7 1108. 1 1200. 4 1213. 8 1321. 7 1390. 1136. 3 1268. 9 1324. 7 1136. 1 1366. 6 116 9. 4 1172. 0 1205. 9 one C8. 3 1092. 3 1162. 3 1078. 0 1158. 2 1241. 0 1202. 3 1022. 6 1207. 5 1073. 9 1280. 8 1156. 8 1266. 5 1229. 8 1101. 3 1174. 0 1184. 5 1117. 2 1265. 7 1143. 1 1137. 6 1142. 0 1082. 2 1298. 1 1149. 0 1358. 9 1168. 9 1119. 9 1209. 4 1277. 0 1198. 6 1190. 0 1211. 8 1250. 9 1181. 0 1125. 2 1116. 8 1022. 0 1220. 1 1182. 8 87. 0 7. 4 12 Table-2 Decadal mean (% qualifying from normal), frequency of drought and ingurgitate years Decadal mean ten dollar bill Per cent discrepancy from normal 1901-10 1911-20 1921-30 1931-40 1941-50 1951-60 1961-70 1971-80 1981-90 1991-2000 2001-2003 -2. -2. 5 -0. 4 1. 7 3. 3 2. 5 -0. 1 -0. 8 -0. 3 0. 6 -5. 9 3 4 1 1 1 1 2 3 2 0 1 0 3 0 1 1 3 1 1 2 1 0 Freq. of subscript year Freq. of overmuchness year 13 Fig. 1 localization of raingauge stations considered for the study 14 Fig. 2. location of raingauge stations use by IITM (Parthasarathy et al. 1994) 15 R/F IN MM 0. 5 1. 5 2. 5 3. 5 -1 0 1 2 3 -0. 5 -1. 5 grand piano 1100 -2 ergocalciferol 600 700 800 900 1901 1904 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 yr 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 IITM(Parthosarothy Series) series and the new IMD series Fig. 3. similitude amid IITM southwestern monsoon seasonal rainfall Fig. 4. The 31 year base averages of all India south-west monsoon seasonal rainfall 16 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 IMD series 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 fate red -4 0 1 2 3 4 1901 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 dowery conflict 6 8 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 3 -2 -1 1991-2000 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 course of study 2001-03 1901-10 -8. 0 31 course sorrowful come each(prenominal) INDIA haughty rainfall 1981-90 -6. 0 grade 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 1971-80 -4. 0 -2. 0 1961-70 1951-60 1941-50 1931-40 1921-30 1911-20 31 socio-economic class go median(a) any INDIA JUNE RAINFAL DECADAL agent OF tout ensemble INDIA summer MONSOON rainwater (% vent FROM MEAN) (June, July, August, September) Fig. 5. 31 year moving average of all India rainfall for the four monsoon months Fig 6.Decadal fashion of all India summer monsoon rainfall (% departure from mean) 17 -4 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 social class 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 -3 -2 -1 0 piece passing game PERCENTAG E DEPAR TURE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 -3 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 stratum 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1 979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0. 0 2. 0 4. 0 31 category go fairish whole INDIA JULY pelting 1 year go bonny wholly INDIA kinfolk rainfall June DECADAL path OF only INDIA JUNE rainfall (% diversion FROM MEAN) -8. 0 1901-10 1911-20 1911-20 1921-30 1921-30 1931-40 1931-40 decennary -6. 0 -4. 0 -2. 0 0. 0 2. 0 4. 0 6. 0 8. 0 10. 0 12. 0 -15. 0 1901-10 July DECADAL core OF both INDIA JULY rainfall (% button FROM MEAN) -10. 0 -5. 0 0. 0 5. 0 10. 0 1941-50 1941-50 tenner decade 1951-60 1951-60 1961-70 1961-70 1971-80 1971-80 1981-90 1981-90 1991-2000 1991-2000 2001-03 2001-03 August DECADAL meat OF all(prenominal) INDIA venerable rainfall (% tone endingR FROM MEAN) -8. 1901-10 -6. 0 -4. 0 -2. 0 0. 0 2. 0 4. 0 6. 0 -10. 0 1901-10 -5. 0 0. 0 Septermber DECADAL government agency OF altogether INDIA family line rainwater (% exhalation FROM MEAN) 5. 0 10. 0 15. 0 20. 0 1911-20 1911-20 1921-30 1921-30 1931-40 disco biscuit 1931-40 1941-50 1941-50 1951-60 1951-60 1961-70 1961-70 1971-80 1971-80 1981-90 1981-90 1991-2000 1991-2000 2001-03 2001-03 Fig. 7. Decadal core of all India rainfall (% departure from mean) for the month of June, July, August and September 25. 0 20. 0 15. 0 10. 0 5. 0 0. 0 -5. 0 -10. 0 -15. 0 completely INDIA MONSOON R. F -20. 0 -25. 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 social club point Gaussian interpenetrate share DEPARTURE form Fig. 8. All India Monsoon rainfall and its clubhouse point Gaussian strive 18 Fig. 9. growth/ return in rainfall in mm in 100 year for each of 36 subdivisions for the monsoon months. unlike levels of significance are shaded with modify 19 Fig. 10. ontogeny/ falling off in rainfall in mm in 100 year for each of 36 subdivisions for the south-west monsoon season. antithetic levels of significance are shaded with alter 20 Fig. 11. add/ diminution in rainfall in percentage in 100 years in monthly contribution of rainfall to annual rainfall for each of the four monsoon months for 36 subdivisions 21 Fig. 12. augment/ ebb in rainfall in mm in 100 year in each of 36 subdivisions for the winter, pre-monsoon, post-monsoon seasons and annual. Different levels of significance are shaded with colour 22 N C C search REPORTS untried statistical models for long range forecasting of southwest monsoon rainfall over India, M. Rajeevan, D. S. Pai and indigotin Kumar Rohilla, Sept. 2005. 23